A Paris bar predicted Trump's victory in the presidential election

While the Harry’s Bar, an American bar, is indeed located in the heart of the second arrondissement of Paris, it has never lost its patriotic spirit, which has defined its charm since its beginnings. And when it comes to American patriotism, it obviously includes close attention to the presidential elections that concluded yesterday. In addition to experiencing these elections by proxy and providing a space where Americans in Paris and curious, engaged French people can gather to follow the latest updates and exchange ideas, the bar has, for over a century now, maintained an unusual tradition: hosting a result prediction night. Over 100 years of tradition, its participants have only been wrong twice. Two days ago, however, they got it right once again.

Every election, both Americans and French are invited to Harry’s Bar to drop their mock ballots into an urn, which is then opened and counted the day before the official results are announced. Once again this year, the result was clear-cut: 568 votes for Trump against only 534 for Kamala Harris. Initially, one might dismiss this as a trivial and meaningless prediction. However, in over 100 years of practice, the predicted result has only diverged from the true result on two occasions – in 1976 with Ford against Carter, and in 2004 with Kerry against Bush. This year’s uncanny accuracy added a sobering note to the cheerful and lighthearted atmosphere of the institution, packed with many Americans.

Although this (fictional and real) victory may suggest bleak prospects, the tradition remains a meaningful way for Americans who have chosen to live overseas to participate, in some way, in these elections and the future of their homeland. The accuracy of the results is also noteworthy: while the “mock voters” predicted Trump would win with 568 votes, he actually garnered 295 – just 27 more. However, one can only hope that next time, the predictions will yield a less catastrophic outcome, not only for America.