2024 could be the worst year ever for AirBnB

A rather simple reservation method and amusing marketing campaigns have been the key to the success of Airbnb, the online platform for short-term rentals that is popular among tourists looking for the right space for their vacations. Despite the platform being recognized worldwide for the vast benefits it offers to hosts compared to the more expensive and less welcoming hotel rooms, there have been several unfortunate incidents involving Airbnb in the last year. Just last fall, they had €779 million confiscated due to a failure to declare taxes in Italy, and they became the subject of an investigation for abusive rentals in Rome, not to mention the countless social media complaints against the platform with photos, from scams for damage refunds to host scams renting shabby places at the price of a dream home. For years, Reddit users have been anticipating the end of Airbnb, lamenting all the scams and abuses they have endured since joining the platform. In 2024, it seems that the moment of reckoning has finally arrived.

Initially, the idea behind Airbnb rentals worked very well. Born in 2007 as a more economical and convenient alternative to hotels, the start-up by Brian Chesky, Nathan Blecharczyk, and Joe Gebbia was, in effect, a cash cow for the hotel industry. While hosts could finally manage their property independently, hoteliers had an alternative way to spend their vacations: experiencing it like a local. After reporting a 40% year-over-year growth until 2022, in 2023 Airbnb experienced a sudden slowdown in business turnover, primarily due to the increase in housing and rental prices. According to an investigation by the English media Which?, hotels in England have become cheaper than Airbnb in at least 24 of the 30 observed cities, not counting the additional services calculated by the platform at the end of the rental. In a strange role reversal, hotels are now the more economical solution for short-term rentals.

Although the years of the pandemic have largely contributed to the decline of Airbnb, as in 2020 the platform experienced a historic surge in demand due to remote work arrangements, paradoxically, it was the increase in listings on the site that halted the platform's rise. Multiplying at a faster rate than demand, impacting the distribution of the population in historic centers, the quality of life in tourist villages, and therefore their charm, short-term rentals lost their appeal. Already in November 2022, Time reported that «the number of available short-term rental listings in the United States rose to 1.38 million in September. This is an increase of 23.2% from the previous year», which ended up completely transforming the occupancy rate of American cities. Even in Italy, the so-called toxic tourism is putting cities like Venice and Elba Island to the test, turning once-idyllic paradises into a real extinction hell. With the introduction of new regulations for short-term rentals, governments are trying to mitigate the damage.

Following an endless domino effect, the decline in bookings and the increase in taxes that hosts will have to pay are contributing to rising rents, as well as an increase in properties in historic centers and the eventual emptying of city villages. According to AirDNA's predictions, prices are set to rise further in 2024, with daily rates experiencing increases of 2.1%. The new year presents a point of no return for the world's most famous short-term rental platform: succumb to the crisis and close its doors, or revise its practices in favor of a structural rebranding to start afresh.