A World Cup group could be decided by a flipped coin

Today, on Monday, June 25th, 2018, the final gameday of the 2018 FIFA World Cup group stage begins and, as you surely know, all the games of the same group are played simultaneously to make sure that no teams get an advantage. Of course, there are massive differences among all the groups, with some of them that are already settled, other with the doubt of which team will qualify as first and which one as second, and others that are everything but granted. However, no one beats Group G, with Belgium, England, Panama, and Tunisia.

Or better, somehow everything has already been decided, as both England and Belgium have won their games against Panama and Tunisia, gaining six points and the qualification to the last sixteen. But to decide which team is going to be the first one and which the second one could be way more tricky and it could even be decided… flipping the coin. In fact, if the Three Lions and the Diables Rouges are going to draw the game on Thursday night, they would see every statistical parameter evened, forcing FIFA to count the Fair Play Points - determined by the disciplinary sanctions inflicted to both teams - and then proceed with the drawing. Ok, it’s not a PROPER flipped coin, but still.

Let’s see how the situation would be in Group G if the game between England and Belgium will end with a draw. 

Points obtained in all group matches: England would have 7, Belgium would have 7.

Goal difference in all group matches: England would be at +6, Belgium would be at +6.

Number of goals scored in all group matches: Assuming a 0-0 draw, England would have 8, and Belgium would have 8.

Points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned: A draw would give England and Belgium 1 point each against each other.

Goal difference in the group matches between the teams concerned: The goal difference in a draw would be 0.

Number of goals scored in the group matches between the teams concerned: Both England and Belgium would have the same number of goals scored.

So, in that case, there would be a seventh determinant factor: Fair Play Points. These, determined by subtracting points for every disciplinary sanction inflicted on the team, could be equal as well, according to the result of the game. In that case, FIFA would be forced to determinate the first qualified team with a drawing, changing the World Cup path of the other one drastically.