In 2025, the price of coffee will skyrocket
Even in Italy, where an espresso at the bar could cost up to 2 euros
January 13th, 2025
Our morning coffee routine might soon change due to yet another increase in the cost of coffee beans on the international commodity markets. In December 2024, the price of Arabica reached $3.47 per pound, the highest level since 1977. At the same time, the price of Robusta nearly doubled compared to the previous year. Forecasts for 2025 indicate a further rise, with prices reaching levels unseen in recent years. According to a report by Statista, in 2018, a kilogram of Arabica, considered the finest coffee bean, was sold at $2.93 per pound. It is estimated that by 2025, the price will rise to $4.35 per kilogram. For Robusta, a plant known for its ability to grow at various altitudes and temperatures, the price was $1.87 per kilogram in 2018 and is expected to increase to $2.8 by 2025.
The rising coffee prices this year will undoubtedly affect the cost of coffee beverages in cafes worldwide. According to Assoutenti, Italians consume about 6 billion cups of coffee annually, with total consumer spending reaching 7.26 billion euros per year. Currently, the average price of a cup is 1.21 euros, an increase of +18.1% over the last three years, and projections indicate further increases, with significant peaks in some cities. For example, in Bolzano, the average price of an espresso is 1.38 euros, the highest in Italy, followed by Trento (1.35 euros) and Pescara, where the average price is 1.34 euros. Conversely, the cheapest city is Catanzaro, where a cup still costs 1 euro, while in Rome, it is around 1.12 euros. The days when an espresso at the bar cost just one euro seem long gone, and the possibility of seeing the price double to 2 euros in 2025 is becoming increasingly likely.
Why are coffee prices soaring?
Telling people how coffee production is gonna be halved in the next 30 years from climate change is probably the best way I've gotten them to care.
— Ramy (@GenZdemagogue) June 16, 2020
The main causes of the price surge can be attributed to climate change. According to a scientific article by Climate.gov, «the optimal conditions for coffee cultivation include tropical climates ranging from cool to warm, rich soils, and minimal pests or diseases». The main coffee-growing regions, an equatorial belt that includes Central and South America, the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, are facing extreme weather events. In Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, a severe drought in the summer of 2024 devastated the harvest, which usually runs from May to September, also jeopardizing production for the following year, as reported by the New York Times. In Vietnam, the largest Robusta producer globally, a drought followed by torrential rains damaged the world's largest reserves of the plant.
A study published in March 2024 in the journal Communications Earth & Environment highlighted that climate pressures could increase food prices by 0.9% to 3.2% over the next decade, depending on how much warmer we allow the planet to become. In the most affected regions, namely tropical climates, the impact can be devastating: less raw material, higher prices. In an interview with the Financial Times, Giuseppe Lavazza, president of the Lavazza Group, stated clearly: «The coffee supply chain is dramatically under pressure [...] Climate change has impacted production in the world's main Robusta-producing countries, especially Vietnam and Indonesia, significantly reducing the availability of this variety». Although the forecasts are not encouraging, in Italy, coffee remains an irreplaceable tradition. Even in 2025, it will still be possible to enjoy a good espresso at relatively affordable prices, a testament to a culture that endures despite the challenges.