Who will win at the 2025 Oscars?

The awards season is coming to an end. Among the fiercest Oscar campaigns in recent years, with constant twists, secrets unveiled, and past events resurfacing, along with days of anxiety due to the fires and buildings razed to the ground in Los Angeles, the Academy is about to put up the "Closed for vacation" sign until next year. And so, it is time to take stock of what has been this intense and certainly not peaceful awards season, trying to figure out together who will manage to snatch the famous statuette. Let’s start with the easy categories. Every year, there is that standout nominee in a lineup who wins from the first award of the season and smoothly glides to the Oscars. This year, that is the case for Kieran Culkin for his role as Benji Kaplan in A Real Pain by Jesse Eisenberg, who is also the film’s director and screenwriter. It is a particularly flourishing moment in Culkin's career, especially in terms of recognition. He comes from a shower of awards for his role as Roman Roy in the incredible series Succession—beating, in a sort of meta-narrative chase, his on-screen brother Logan Roy/Jeremy Strong—and continued receiving acclaim for his performance ever since A Real Pain first premiered at the 2024 Sundance Film Festival, eventually landing an Oscar nomination for Best Supporting Actor. Of all the potential outcomes, his not winning would be the most shocking twist.

Of course, the actor is at the center of what is known as the "category fraud" controversy, where there is alleged "fraud" regarding the screen time of the performer and whether such a presence in a film can truly be considered "supporting." However, this is an issue that will likely be addressed in the coming years, especially if Culkin actually wins the statuette, making evident a discrepancy between lead and supporting roles, even though similarly striking cases in the past have not led to any changes. With all due respect to Guy Pearce's performance in The Brutalist, who is arguably the truest supporting actor of the 2025 season and unjustly sidelined, Kieran Culkin faces competition from a colleague who, just like him, could win despite spending even more time on screen than the actress from the same film nominated for Best Lead Actress. That colleague is Zoe Saldana as Rita Mora Castro in the musical-gangster film Emilia Pérez, the favorite among supporting actresses, likely the only award the Jacques Audiard film will manage to secure. Once a frontrunner of the season—since its premiere at the 2024 Cannes Film Festival—it ended up in a whirlwind of controversies that left it in shambles: a caricatured portrayal of Mexico, transphobic representation, Selena Gomez's Spanish accent, and finally, the coup de grâce with old racist tweets resurfacing from Karla Sofía Gascón.

A slow and deadly downfall that might have also cost Emilia Pérez the once-assured Best International Feature award, which could now easily be taken by the Brazilian film I Am Still Here, starring Fernanda Torres, who surprisingly won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama, making her the only real potential challenger to the Oscar category's darling, Demi Moore. In one of the plot twists that sometimes define Oscar night, Walter Salles’ film could shuffle the deck by winning Best Picture, presenting an image of an Academy that champions international, political, and socially conscious cinema—despite Torres herself being caught up in a minor controversy when an old sketch of hers featuring blackface resurfaced. However, it is more likely that I Am Still Here will secure the Best International Feature award, with everyone celebrating such an achievement. This would leave the way open for the actress long considered merely "popcorn cinema" who, with The Substance by Coralie Fargeat, poured her heart and soul (and especially her body) into her performance. Moore is a choice that could please everyone: there’s the redemption of a semi-forgotten star making a comeback, Hollywood’s empowerment narrative, genre experimentation, and a total utilization of her physicality—making Pierre-Olivier Persin’s work on the monstrous Elisasue deserving of the Best Makeup award.

If there were a silent contender ready to surprise everyone, it would undoubtedly be Mikey Madison, whose win seemed unlikely at the start of the awards season but who then claimed the BAFTA for her portrayal of a sex worker in Anora by Sean Baker. However, more than the British award, what often makes the real difference are the guild awards. This is why Adrien Brody of The Brutalist must be very careful as the race reaches its final stretch, with Timothée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown overtaking him by winning the SAG Awards—given by the Screen Actors Guild—after previously dominating every Best Actor award. Could the Academy members have been put off by the revelation that Brady Corbet's film used AI? It is possible, especially considering the battle waged by the union during the Hollywood strikes of 2023. However, upon closer examination, the AI-generated Hungarian accent in The Brutalist does not significantly impact the actors’ performances. Nonetheless, Brody must now be on edge, although, in the end, he has already won an Oscar for Best Actor in 2003 for his harrowing portrayal in The Pianist, and no award snub will make his gut-wrenching performance as architect László Tóth any less powerful. The Brutalist also seemed poised to win Best Director, until the Directors Guild of America and Producers Guild of America Awards both honored Anora.

Anora, which remained empty-handed during the Golden Globe night, gave the impression that after winning the Palme d'Or at Cannes and receiving unanimous praise as one of Sean Baker's best works, the film's luck had run out. However, the Critics' Choice Awards reignited its momentum by awarding it only one prize out of the seven it was nominated for—but none other than Best Picture. Before reaching the Academy's top prize, let's analyze what could happen in the remaining categories. Anora might secure Best Original Screenplay if it weren’t for The Substance, which won the same award at the Cannes Festival, where it premiered. However, at the Golden Globes, where original and adapted screenplays are combined into a single category, the originality of Fargeat's work was surpassed by the precision and meticulousness of Conclave's script. A rather conventional thriller adapted from Robert Harris' novel, it has garnered multiple awards throughout the season, much like its director Edward Berger's previous work, All Quiet on the Western Front (2022), which managed to win four Academy Awards (Best International Feature, Cinematography, Screenplay, and Score).

Meanwhile, Conclave has already secured the BAFTA for Best Film—not surprising given its British co-production influence—and the SAG Award for Best Ensemble Cast, as well as a Critics' Choice Award. A potential surprise, albeit not entirely improbable, would be Isabella Rossellini winning Best Supporting Actress for her role as Sister Agnes. With fifty years in the industry, seventy-two years of age, and Conclave marking her first Oscar nomination, the film seems almost certain to win Best Adapted Screenplay. While Flow prepares to claim Best Animated Feature and No Other Land Best Documentary (thanks in part to Brady Corbet’s endorsement), Wicked could dominate the technical categories, though it must watch out for Dune: Part Two. As the Jon M. Chu musical is unlikely to triumph in major categories, it could instead secure wins for Costume and Production Design. However, it would be absurd—if not outright ridiculous—to see it win Best Score. The mere fact that its presence led to the exclusion of one of 2024's most iconic soundtracks—Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross' score for Challengers—is baffling. Without Guadagnino’s film in the race, the Best Score category loses much of its significance, though any other nominee would be preferable to rewarding the wonderful yet overly familiar songs of Wicked, known since 2003.

Similarly, Best Editing should go to the monumental work of Dávid Jancsó for The Brutalist, were it not for the controversy surrounding his revelation about using artificial intelligence in the film, which did not exactly boost his reputation. It’s unfortunate, as the film would have been an excellent Best Picture contender, but too many obstacles have emerged along the way. Now, the key question is whether this year's Academy Awards will favor a safer, more conventional choice over a bold, daring one. Corbet’s masterpiece has proven that classic cinema is still alive, yet its three-and-a-half-hour runtime might have deterred voters, who are often known for not thoroughly doing their homework. Additionally, the Pope's illness and uncertain future may have provided an unexpected marketing boost for Conclave. Perhaps, aside from the aforementioned Io sono ancora qui, the real contender that could pull off a victory is Anora. It would be a surprise, much like when it won at Cannes. A film that faced some setbacks—reports suggest that the lack of an intimacy coordinator was not well received in the U.S.—but one that ultimately embodies what cinema represents today: the rise of indie filmmaking over traditional industry powerhouses, the emancipation and respectful portrayal of often-marginalized figures, and the blending of multiple genres into a single, cohesive narrative. Moreover, it stands as the pinnacle of the career of a remarkable and still untainted filmmaker like Sean Baker. It would be a beautiful story, providing a poignant counterpoint to the bittersweet and heartbreaking ending of the film.