What is the "recession indicator" meme really about?

Searching for the word “recession indicator” on X won't bring up serious economic information but rather memes. The joke, borrowing the expression from financial jargon, is used to describe celebrity actions, corporate decisions, or even simple cultural trends that parody real recession indicators such as the famous Lipstick Theory, the Hemline Index, and statistical data showing that a drop in the sales of underwear, champagne, and hair dye is a harbinger of an impending economic collapse. As mentioned, social media users and the meme world have blended this now-popular notion with the ever-present celebrity culture, turning the most disparate events into “recession indicators”: Lady Gaga producing new pop music, the surge of used and unsold copies of Infinite Jest, the new theme song for The White Lotus, the trend of disappearing tattoos as seen with Pete Davidson, the return of normcore and bikini-clad models in Super Bowl burger ads, but also the “death” of the Duolingo owl, sparkly outfits, and so on. As an anonymous Twitter user once quipped, «everything is a recession indicator if you believe in it enough,» and of course, the spread of the joke represents both a reflection of collective anxiety about a potential and imminent economic downturn and a humor-driven appropriation of the financial language that dominates our lives and many of our discussions – something similar is happening with memes about “GDP Fans,” which parody the neoliberal mindset, finance bro stereotypes, and the obsession with “shareholder value.”

Now, the meme’s spread is not only the long wave of that fundamental fear of an economic crisis that has haunted Millennials’ subconscious since 2008 and inspired a great number of films in recent years (The Big Short, Margin Call, The Florida Project, and even the first Magic Mike in some ways), but also a form of sardonic humor that seeks historical parallels and interprets them pessimistically as omens. The fact that major macroeconomic events can be reflected in pop culture is well established: beyond transforming the business models of entire industries, the economic crash ushered in a new era of austerity, logo-free fashion, and set the stage for the fast fashion boom with Zara and H&M expanding across Europe. Indie-hipster culture was, after all, what had survived the crisis from the Indie Sleaze era.

Even today, in fact, the response to the crisis triggered by lockdowns and perhaps not yet fully resolved has paved the way for Shein and revived the culture of thrifting and secondhand shopping, fueled by the ever-widening gap between luxury market prices and those found in vintage stores. In addition to this, the meme's growth could also serve as an unconscious critique of a culture that incessantly recycles the past (primarily for economic reasons), leading to repetitions, similarities, and “duplicates.” Consequently, Lady Gaga’s return to music becomes a recession indicator in jest because her first two albums were released at the height of the 2008 crash. Similarly, the return of bands or movies from the past, as well as certain trends, may signal the return of a cultural past that, in our collective imagination, is linked to an economic past. But the joke is also applied, it seems, to suggest that an artist, singer, or actor is returning to the scene after stepping away because they need money—thus their comeback humorously signals the return of a crisis since even these celebrities have found themselves needing to make ends meet.

The most interesting part, however, remains when the “recession indicator” doesn’t refer to a particular artist but rather a certain trend, which could be anything from the resurgence of Martini cocktails to the disappearance of romcoms, from the widespread popularity of leggings to the return of Tumblr; from Timothée Chalamet’s Y2K hip-hop outfits to ultra-thin eyebrows. It’s clear that the criteria aren’t valid, and the entire fun of the meme lies in pointing to any random phenomenon as a “recession indicator.” However, humor rarely exists without a grain of truth—and the truth is that this meme simultaneously speaks to how deeply financial mindsets have permeated our culture, how our culture seems trapped in an endless cycle of historical repetitions, and, most of all, how unsettling it is that the future appears to be nothing more than a repetition of a past whose familiarity scares us.

But doesn’t the joke also hint at the opposite fear—that of an unknown, rapidly approaching future? Judging by the growing news about inflation, wars, and looming economic crises, one might say yes. Yet, according to a bank like J.P. Morgan, the U.S. has been at risk of a recession for two years without one actually occurring, and this year the probability stands at just 20%, quite low. Things are different in Europe, where, however, recession indicators are no laughing matter. Perhaps even that is a “recession indicator.”