Italian cheese producers against Trump

It may seem strange, but among those in Italy most concerned about the U.S. elections are cheese producers, who fear the return of Donald Trump. When the current Republican candidate was president in 2019, he introduced tariffs on many goods produced in the European Union, including cheeses. Today, the U.S. market is one of the fastest-growing for this sector: Italian cheese producers have managed to regain ground, but they are now worried that Trump’s possible re-election could bring new tariffs, with all the consequences that entails. The tariffs introduced in 2019 imposed a 25% surcharge on many agri-food products exported to the United States, including Parmigiano Reggiano and Pecorino. The price of Italian cheeses in the U.S. increased to the point that the market collapsed. Things changed only at the beginning of 2021, after the inauguration of the new Joe Biden administration, which normalized trade relations with Europe. Thanks to this approach, Italian cheese exports increased: exports of Grana Padano, for example, grew by more than 6%, surpassing 2 million units; almost half of this cheese’s total production is now destined for foreign markets, and the United States is one of the main destinations. Unsurprisingly, the possible introduction of tariffs by China is far less concerning – for example, only 35 tons of Parmigiano were exported there last year, compared to total production of over 28,000 tons.

The cheese industry is particularly complex, having to reconcile commercial development with strict regulations. Managing the entire supply chain is not easy, especially because production follows a cyclical trend and takes a long time: for cheeses, farmers produce milk on average two years before the sale, as the product typically requires an aging period before it can reach the market. Costs and prices can be influenced by many variables, such as the introduction of new tariffs. Production is generally regulated by the respective consortia, which, among other things, aim to facilitate the export of cheese. For example, the Consorzio del Parmigiano Reggiano regulates the supply of the product based on domestic and foreign demand: essentially, forecasts are made to ensure that supply and demand are balanced over time.

Why Europe and the United States Dispute Over Cheeses

Even today, Parmigiano Reggiano and other cheeses face competition in the U.S. from local companies, which sometimes use potentially misleading labels – like “parmesan cheese” – to sell lower-quality products that, to less knowledgeable consumers, may seem Italian because of the name. U.S. cheese production is steadily increasing and has become a key part of the country’s agri-food industry: in 2021, the sector’s annual turnover exceeded $30 billion. However, American cheese producers have long argued that restrictions on cheese names are a major limitation and result in lost profits. The European Union, on the other hand, continues to protect the nomenclature of foods that have a specific link between their characteristics and their geographic origin. For example, to be called "Parmigiano Reggiano," a cheese – in addition to having specific qualities – must be made exclusively in the provinces of Parma, Reggio Emilia, Modena, and Bologna, only in territories to the left of the Reno River, and in the province of Mantua to the right of the Po River. U.S. producers, however, argue that such terms – like “feta” or “fontina,” among others – have long been used widely and should refer to a specific production method, not necessarily to the origin. This way, the U.S. cheese business could expand even further.

The concern is that the potential election of Donald Trump, known for his strong support for economic protectionism and defending U.S. industrial interests, could lead to even more tense negotiations with the European Union over the protection of “controlled designation of origin” (DOP). During his previous term, Trump had already taken aggressive trade measures against European partners, and it is possible that a return to the White House would increase pressure to reduce or eliminate restrictions on names like “parmesan”. This possibility worries European producers, who see the protection of geographically linked terms not only as a guarantee of quality but also as a way to preserve local traditions. Furthermore, the liberalization of these names could lead to excessive standardization of products and reduce the added value that currently distinguishes cheeses like Parmigiano Reggiano from their American counterparts. A trade conflict between the U.S. and Europe over this issue, though it may seem niche, could have significant repercussions on agri-food exports.