Kering's initial estimates of coronavirus losses

Last year alone, Kering, the group that owns Gucci, Saint Laurent, Balenciaga and Bottega Veneta, generated 17 billion in revenue, which was an increase of 13% compared to 2018. However, the group's estimates made public recently are less encouraging, with sales expected to fall by 14% in the first quarter of 2020. The company's estimates for the first quarter will be finalized in about a month's time, on April 21, but in the meantime the group has indicated that it expects a further decline in sales for the second quarter.

Kering's representatives, however, did not make an unbalanced statement on their predictions, due to the "dynamic nature of the situation and lack of visibility". However, their communiqué conveys confidence in the group's financial structure, which will absorb well the strong impact of the pandemic, and some optimism from China, where with the gradual recovery of activity is leading sales to grow again, although the impact of the emergency remains significant both in the peaceful area and in North America and Europe. However, the reopening of Chinese stores is beginning to restore hope to Western brands, but they will have to face the peak of the pandemic in their home markets.

It's still difficult to calculate the impact that the Covid-19 pandemic will have on the fashion industry. And while more precise estimates will have to wait for official reports that brands and large industry groups will present in the coming months, projections from experts and analysts are less than rosy. Burberry reported an 80 per cent drop in sales and a possible 30 per cent drop in revenue in the final quarter of 2020, while Hugo Boss simply admitted it could not accurately estimate the damage. Many companies in the industry, however, have found a way to keep their factories open by starting the production of sanitary and medical equipment, such as masks, protective suits and disinfectants. What makes the forecasts unreliable is the uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic, which in Italy is expected to peak in the coming days and which, according to the projections of doctors, could even be exceeded in virulence and diffusion from those that will be seen abroad, especially in Spain and the United States.